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Tag Archives: U.S. Fed

Feb 2, 2021

U.S. Treasuries Sold Off with Rising Breakeven Inflation in January

The year 2021 started with a continuous sell-off in the U.S. Treasury bond market. Starting on the second trading day of the year, yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond rose for five consecutive trading days by 23 bps until Jan. 12, 2021, when strong auction results for the 10-year note pulled the yield back…

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Aug 17, 2020

The Flood of U.S. Treasury Issuance and Duration Supply Continues

In its Q3 2020 refunding statement1 released on Aug. 5, 2020, the U.S. Treasury announced its plan to increase auction sizes across all nominal coupon tenors over the August-October quarter, with larger increases in longer tenors (7-year, 10-year, 20-year and 30-year). To gauge the demand appetite for U.S. Treasuries, let’s review the size and composition…

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Jul 31, 2019

Channeling Maverick and the Maestro: The Fed Cut Rates because “We Were Inverted”

One of the classic scenes from the original Top Gun movie recounts the exchange Maverick (Tom Cruise) had with a MiG-28. Maverick corrects Charlie’s (Kelly McGillis) intelligence report on the Russian fighter jet with his eyewitness account. When she asks how he saw a MiG-28 perform a 4G dive from above, he responds: “Because I…

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Oct 31, 2017

As Markets Await Fed Chair Nomination, U.S. Treasury Curve Continues to Flatten

President Trump said he will make an announcement during the week of Oct. 30, 2017, regarding his nomination for who will replace Chairwoman Janet Yellen when her term ends in January 2018.  Most reports suggest current Fed Governor Jerome Powell will get the nod over Stanford University economics Professor John Taylor.  Mr. Taylor could still…

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